Los Angeles wannabes versus Paris/Tokyo incumbents. Pals Eva Goodisson and Brea Roderick versus the steely, soloist resolve of Nicole van der Kaay and Ainsley Thorpe.
That’s the unavoidable, tantalising tension framing Sunday’s Oceania Triathlon Sprint Championships at Ahuriri Beach in Napier, from a Kiwi perspective at least. It’ll linger into Monday morning’s continental Mixed Relay at Mitre 10 Park Hawke’s Bay in Hastings too.
With fewer than 12 weeks until the LA ’28 Olympic Games qualification window opens, Hawke’s Bay is the first meaningful read on where New Zealand’s top four sit. The individual results won’t be decisive in a wider 2026 context but they will be telling. Form, intent and momentum all count.
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Sunday’s results will determine Monday’s relay lineups. Thereafter results in the super sprint trial (March 26) at Tri NZ’s annual HP Training Camp in Mt Maunganui, Oceania Cup Auckland (March 29) and the Oceania Super Sprint Championships in Runaway Bay (April 18-19) will ultimately shape selection for the year’s critical Mixed Relay teams at WTCS Alghero, Quiberon and Hamburg, the latter doubling as the World Championships.
That six week window in Europe. That’s the real play.
The relay remains New Zealand’s most likely pathway to two male and two female Olympic quota spots in LA and the athletes have been told the selectors will reward form. It’s a challenging as they must also take care of the individual narrative, building their World Rankings to ensure get ahead in the pecking order while proving they can deliver in the rapid-fire relay format.
That difficult balancing act begins in Hawke’s Bay this weekend.
Incumbents vs Intent
Van der Kaay and Thorpe have runs on the board. Tokyo. Paris. Experience in the big moments that matter.
But neither arrive in Napier with complete certainty.
For van der Kaay, the equation is familiar. Swim well and her run speed means she can never be discounted, perhaps even to the point where she can dictate terms.
The Taupo 30-year-old has raced sparingly on the short course circuit since last year’s stress fracture, her 2025 schedule leaning towards the middle distances as a post-Paris refresh, including a tilt at the at last year’s Ironman 70.3 World Championships in Marbella.
How she plays 2026 will be fascinating. It seems a mix of racing remains the focus with NVDK interestingly on the start list for T100 Gold Coast – just three days before the Mt Maunganui super sprint trial.
Thorpe’s path has been different. A deliberate reset post Paris means Sunday’s race will be her first World Triathlon circuit start since last July’s WTCS Hamburg.
The Cambridge 28-year-old’s strategy is simple: stay in contact on the bike and give herself a chance on the run. She started last year strongly with the bronze medal at World Cup Napier and would gladly take the same again to hit the road to LA running.
They are the benchmarks. And for the Tokyo and LA cycles they were largely unchallenged. That luxury no longer exists.
The Push Is On
Roderick and Goodisson have Los Angeles firmly in their crosshairs. Both were in Paris, Roderick as official Team NZL reserve and Goodisson as a spectator with serious FOMO. That’s the fuel for both.
Goodisson has made her move, linking with Aussie coach-to-the-stars Dan Atkins, mentor to freshly minted WTCS men’s champion Matt Hauser. There’s also a new training environment on the Gold Coast and a clear commitment to the relay pathway. Early signs suggest she’s in tip top shape and her strengths line up with the demands of Napier’s flat, fast course.
Roderick’s last 12 months have been disrupted, but the upside is obvious. Paris Olympic reserve. The 23-year-old Cantabrian knows what an Olympic campaign looks like and what it takes to get there. Now settled into a new coaching relationship with Greg Fraine, Roderick is aggressive in the water, decisive on the bike and particularly suited to the shorter, sharper demands of relay racing.
Together, they have the tools and the shared motivation to shape Sunday’s combined Elite/U23 race.
If they commit early — and there’s every reason to think they will — this becomes uncomfortable for the incumbents. Both can swim and ride, and both will work to break the race open rather than sit in. Perhaps even in cahoots with any willing Aussies to make their mark early.
That’s the tension. Uncomfortable for the combatants and an unavoidable watch for those looking from the outside in.
The Reality Check
This isn’t just a two-versus-two clash of the Kiwi titans.
Canada’s Desirae Ridenour is the favourite. She won World Cup Napier last year and returned to Mount Maunganui in December to take out the Surf Breaker — nearly three minutes clear of Thorpe. If she gets to the run in position, she will take some beating.
Charlotte Derbyshire brings a first World Cup podium to Napier as the highest ranked Aussie. Richelle Hill arrives as the reigning U23 world champion and was 8th here last year in a deeper field. Ellie Hoitink has the run speed to contend if she can make the front group, while Aspen Anderson steps into the U23 ranks as the top seed.
They don’t care about New Zealand’s internal dynamics. They’ll race to win.
The Kiwi Depth
Ten elites, 13 U23s, one combined race.
Phoebix Carter leads the Kiwi U23 group, ranked second behind Anderson, with Charlotte Brown and Sophie Webber close behind. Sadly promising junior Hayley Cornwall is an injury scratching after her third behind Ridenour and Thorpe at December’s Surf Breaker.
Amara Rae adds another determined Kiwi presence in the elite field.
What Matters
Napier won’t decide selection for the big, mid-year European races. But it will influence it.
While the independent Team NZL selection panel has the ability to look back, they’ve also been tasked with rewarding form. And with WTCS relay starts on the line in Alghero, Quiberon and Hamburg, the LA hopefuls don’t have long to make their case.
So watch the front of the swim in Napier and for any big names dropped off the front feet. Watch who’s working for who on the bike and who is just hanging on. And who has the early run speed.
Goodisson and Roderick will have sussed a plan. Van der Kaay and Thorpe have come at it with solo focus and will be determined to hold them off.
The question is simple.
Status quo, changing of the guard… or something in between? Napier is the first, fascinating marker in a two year qualifying campaign that promises an entirely unpredictable outcome.
